System & Strategy

Strategies to Maximize Your Earnings

We are an NFL handicapping website that focuses on Straight Bets and Teaser Bets. We do not weigh in on other types of bets because we have found a winning system and we believe that focusing on what works is the best way to maximize profits!

To completely take advantage of our system and maximize your winning potential, we strongly encourage that you read and comply with the following strategies:

  1. Why Teaser Bets?
  2. Wager Consistent Amounts
  3. Reduce Points Taken
  4. Utilize All Picks
  5. Bet Without Emotion
  6. Take The Final Line!

There are many different types of bets that you can place on NFL games, such as straight bets, teaser bets, moneyline bets, prop bets, over/under scores, and others. For the purposes of our website, we focus on straight bets and teaser bets.

Straight Bet

A type of bet where you pick one team against the spread (ATS), the number that is created by sportsbooks to show how much of a favorite or an underdog a team is in their particular game. The spread can also be called the “line” on a game.

Example Game 1: New England -2.5 home vs Green Bay

This means that New England is favored by 2.5 points in the game. If you bet on New England, they would need to win the game by 3 points or more in order to win the bet. If the line had New England +2.5, that means they would be considered underdogs in the game. In the second scenario, New England could lose the game by 2 points or less (or win the game outright) in order for you to win your bet.

Teaser Bet

This type of bet builds off of the concept of a straight bet, but there are a few differences. In a teaser you bet on 2 teams to win against the spread instead of just one. However, instead of taking the original spread or line you are able to adjust the line by a set amount of points of your choosing. Let’s take the example above and add in another game as well:

Example Lines (Original, before adding points):

Game 1: New England -2.5 home vs Green Bay
Game 2: Buffalo +3.5 away vs Dallas

Say in this scenario you decided to take New England and Buffalo in a teaser bet. This means both teams would need to cover their spread in order for you to win your bet. However, the advantage to the player is that we can now add extra points to each teams’ initial line. For this scenario it may make sense to take a 7-point teaser, which means you’d add 7 points to each teams’ original line:

Example Final Lines (After adding points):

Game 1: New England +4.5 home vs Green Bay
Game 2: Buffalo +10.5 away vs Dallas

You would still need New England and Buffalo to both cover to win your bet, but now you’ve essentially bought a touchdown of insurance (7 points = touchdown and extra point). This is where our name “The Final Line” comes from.

In order to be a successful sports investor, you need to be conscious of the overall strategy you’re implementing and your risk tolerance. To bet intelligently, you cannot have personal favorites for any individual pick – you need to consider them all equal. Because of this, you must wager a consistent amount for each pick all season long! We can’t stress the importance of this enough – it doesn’t matter whether it’s a teaser or straight bet, or if you think one game will have better chances of winning over another. The whole idea is that we use a system that helps us choose games that fit a certain value profile, and this requires us to treat all games equally.

The first step in determining what your set wager amount per pick is establishing a bankroll. This should be considered a set amount of money you are comfortable betting over the course of the NFL season. Choose this ahead of time and do not alter it. For this example we’ll just say your initial bankroll is $1,000.

The next step would be to determine your risk tolerance. You have to understand that the NFL is a volatile sport, and although we are highly confident in our picks long-term success capabilities, we cannot guarantee that you will win (just like every investment you’ve ever made). Therefore you need to understand how much you’d be willing to risk from the get-go, as this would determine how much you make by year’s end. Most people choose to wager between 2% and 10% of their initial bankroll on each wager. We don’t recommend going over 10% per wager as there are ups and downs over the course of the season, and if you hit a down stretch you wouldn’t want to deplete your bankroll. For both the conservative (2%) and higher-risk (10%) percentages above, your set wager amount would be $20 per bet (for 2% risk) and $100 per bet (for 10% risk) with a starting bankroll of $1,000.

Remember the whole idea is that this is a season-long investment strategy, so being smart about how you bet is crucial to succeeding. Don’t be greedy, follow our advice and wager a consistent amount for every pick all season!

Taking Points on Teaser Bets

Note: this advice is for teaser bets only

As we know with teaser bets, the whole concept is that you add 2 teams together into one wager, add a specific number of points to each line, and generate a final line for each team that must cover the end score of the game in order to win the bet. You can add anywhere from 6-9 points to each line, and obviously the more points you add the better your odds are of winning. However, there is a tradeoff as the more points you take, the less money you will win in your wager. We want to maximize our return on investment by selecting an adequate amount of points that land on key numbers while still providing a good payout. This will help us achieve a long-term profitability strategy for NFL betting.

We use 5Dimes because they offer the best initial lines for teaser bets. The following table displays one online sportsbooks’ conversion of the number of points taken in a teaser and the corresponding return on investment/ROI for each (remember, your set wager amount equals 1 unit, so on a $100 bet your 1 unit = $100):

Amount Bet Points Taken Amount Won (ROI)
1 6 0.909
1 6.5 0.833
1 7 0.769
1 7.5 0.714
1 8 0.667
1 8.5 0.625

Usually we will choose anywhere from 4-8 picks a week depending on where the value lies in particular games. We cannot stress the importance enough of playing on every game we suggest! To be able to use our information properly, you need to buy into our systematic, statistical approach. Based on our analysis and insights, particular games will stand out as having value. However, the NFL is a volatile sport and on individual games there will be both crazy comeback victories or bad defeats late in the game. Knowing this information, you should take every game because over time (the course of the season) these huge comebacks and bad beats will even each other out and overall we are confident that we will be profitable. If you decide to take individual games from our picks based on your judgment, you’re running the risk of choosing the losing picks and overall you may not achieve the level of success that we know we can deliver to you with our system.

The idea behind our website and NFL handicapping is that educated bettors use data analysis and insight to find finds value in particular games. This is why you cannot bet with emotion, as it can cloud your judgment and make you lose sight of the facts. We are completely unbiased on the teams we take and you should be too.

Avoiding emotional betting ties into a few of the other concepts we’ve talked about for a smart NFL investing strategy. Taking every pick, optimizing the line taken, wagering a consistent amount, and betting without emotions are all tied together as a winning formula. We’ve been doing this for years and know how to optimize our strategy to maximize our winnings. Stop betting like most of the general public by letting your emotions guide your decisions, and start investing with us using sound logic and data to drive your pick decisions!

This may be the most important lesson of all. We try to find point spreads for a straight bet and adjust points for teaser bets to land on a “key” number. In the NFL, the final score typically differs a touchdown (7 points for a touchdown and extra point) or a field goal (3 points). Knowing this, a lot of scores tend to be decided by 3, 4 (TD minus FG), or 7, and we aim to adjust our lines to be ½ point better than those numbers when possible. Adding an extra half point makes sure that we never push bets.

The lines will shift over the course of the week, which means you may have to add more or less points on a teaser bet to compensate to reach “the final line” we suggest. It doesn’t matter if the points you take matches what we suggest, you must match the final line we suggest in order to win consistently Even if you are off ½ point, you’ll see that this can be the difference between a win and a push (original wager returned), and over the course of the year these will add up fast. So try to take the points we suggest, but make sure to take The Final Line!