Why Teaser Bets?
It’s hard not to approach football like any other investment: find an opportunity with “value” (in this case, a football line), and invest. To maximize our winning percentage we want as large a value as possible, and this is what led us to Teaser Bets.
A teaser bet is a type of bet where you take 2 or more teams together in one bet, but you can add points to each teams line to gain an advantage or value add.
||The Initial Line
||The Final Line
||New England -3 home vs. Green Bay
||New England +4.5 home vs. Green bay
||Buffalo +3 away vs. Dallas
||Buffalo +10.5 away vs. Dallas
There is HUGE value in teaser bets when it comes to football. Most professional bettors out there try to pick the winner of a football game against a normal line, and most of the reason is that this the “common” bet. If you’ve been following games and lines, you’ll notice that more often than not the experts that create the line are spot on, with many games falling within 0-1 points of the original line. Now if you already have a way to find the value, how great would it be if you could add 6, 7, or 8 points to the line in your favor? That almost sounds unfair. Now of course the NFL by nature is a very volatile sport, so there are always games that baffle the experts and will beat your extra points advantage.
What our system helps us do is identify those “undervalued” teams. Remember the goal of betting on a line isn’t picking the winner of a game, but rather having your team cover the spread against a line. Also remember that the lines are created based on the general public’s perception anyway (just like the stock market), as the sportsbooks and casinos want the general public to put 50% of the bets on one side of the line and 50% of the other side. That way they still earn their VIG from every bettor and some people will still always win. As long as they make their money they could care less about who wins or loses. We can use this knowledge to our advantage as a bettor, and with our system the goal is to find undervalued teams, give them extra points (an insurance policy), and watch the money roll in!
Wager Consistent Amounts
To be a successful sports investor, you must have a plan of attack so you can maximize profits over time. One necessary element to this plan is betting a consistent amount for each wager placed. One rule of thumb we use is to determine the total amount you have to invest (your bankroll), and then take 10% of that bankroll to place on each wager. So if your bankroll is $1,000, you would place $100 on each wager. Some people may be a more conservative or aggressive bettor, so they may want to place anywhere from 5-15% of their bankroll per wager. No matter how you decide to play, the important takeaway is that you should bet a consistent amount on each wager all season long.
Sure you may see a game that looks like the “pick of the century” or a no lose scenario, but trust us when we say there’s no such scenario in the NFL. You may be tempted to bet more on these games, thinking that you’ll win more money. This may work for a couple games, but it also won’t work for a couple others. Over time the differential between money lost vs. money won will grow for these larger bets, and this takes away from our profit maximizing strategy. Remember that we are creating a strategy to make as large a profit as possible over the course of a season. There will be ups and downs during the season, but if you stick to a plan and believe in the system you will find a light at the end of the tunnel. Don’t be greedy, play a consistent amount per wager!
Reduce Points Taken
The amount of return made on each teaser is dependent on the number of points taken. Therefore to maximize long-term profits, reducing the amount of points taken for each teaser is crucial. Pairing teams that have similar lines is an easy way to reduce the number of points and maximize profits! Our system minimizes the number of points we take to maximize the return while making sure we take enough points to ensure the teaser wins.
We use 5Dimes because they offer the best initial lines for teaser bets. The following table displays the number of points and their respective return on investment:
||Amount Won (ROI)
Utilize All Picks
We pick anywhere from 4-8 teasers a week based on how our system rates the games. As the NFL is a very volatile sport, there are no guaranteed wins and trying to pick and choose games will hurt you in the long-term. Our system is designed to achieve a successful winning percentage by the end of the season, which in turn will provide maximum profits. As long as you bet on every game we suggest with a consistent wager, the winning percentage will ensure you make a profit regardless of how much you bet. However, this winning percentage may not be achieved if you don’t play every game, so make sure to play all of the teasers we provide! Just remember to budget your bankroll so that you can afford to play.
Bet Without Emotion
Invest, Don’t Gamble
The key to sports investing is betting without emotion. Emotions sway a bettor to take action based on feelings rather than value. The smart bettor will leave emotion at the door when it comes to sports. I’d love New England to win every week against the spread, but the odds say otherwise. Taking emotion out of the equation and trusting in a sound statistical system is how long-term profits are made. Most of the negative connotation surrounding sports betting comes because most people will bet with their emotions and this is what makes them “gamblers”. A sports “investor” understands that emotions get you nowhere, but research and analysis can help you win consistently and sustainably. You can try betting with emotion if you’d like – you might even win sometimes. However if you’re looking for a smart way to invest your money, leave your personal emotions behind and trust in the numbers!
Take The Final Line
This may be the most important part of our system. We adjust the lines in our teasers so that the final line covers most common scores. In the NFL, most scores are either by touchdown (7 points with the extra point) or by field goal (3 points). Therefore a lot of times you will see teams win by 3, 7, or 4 points (one team gets a touchdown, other team gets a field goal). When we add points and get to our final line, most of the time you will see the numbers have an extra ½ point. This half point can mean the difference between pushing (getting your original wager back) and winning. We strategically set our lines to keep our winning percentage high, so do not deviate from the system; take our final lines!