Pick 4: Kansas City vs. Denver and Baltimore vs. Jacksonville

Pick 4: Kansas City vs. Denver and Baltimore vs. Jacksonville

The Teaser: Pair Kansas City and Baltimore

Game 1: Kansas City vs. Denver

The Initial Line:

Kansas City +7 away vs. Denver

The Take:

Add 8.5 points to Kansas City’s line

The Final Line:

Kansas City +15.5

The Breakdown:

Kansas City got a bye week after a 3-5 start to the year. Denver suffered its first loss of the season in a close match to Indianapolis 27-24. This is always a great AFC West showdown, and KC would have won the first matchup this season if it weren’t for a late fumble by Jamaal Charles. After 5 straight losses KC was able to win 2 straight before their bye week, and should come out fresh against a Denver team who finally was brought back to reality. Denver has gotten the best of KC lately, as they’ve won their last 7 matchups. However 4 of the 7 games were decided by 1 score, as they always seem to step up to the challenge. KC’s defense can also keep this one close, as they only allow 22.8 PPG and have held their last 4 opponents under 20 points. It would still be a task for KC to go on the road and beat Denver, but this could easily be a very tight game so a 2 TD cushion would be more than enough.

Final Stat: KC has been within a TD score in 6 out of 8 games this year. They stayed within 15 pts of the other 2 games (at GB and at Cin).

Game 2: Baltimore vs. Jacksonville

The Initial Line:

Baltimore -5.5 home vs. Jacksonville

The Take:

Add 8.5 points to Baltimore’s line

The Final Line:

Baltimore +3

The Breakdown:

Baltimore got a much needed bye week after a 2-6 start to the year. Jacksonville lost on the road to New York 28-23 to also move to 2-6 on the season. Baltimore suffered a big loss in Steve Smith, but Joe Flacco is still putting up some big numbers. He’s thrown for a 63.3% comp % and 2,176 yds halfway through the year. They also have Justin Forsett running with authority, ranking in the top 10 in rushing on the season. After coming off the bye, Baltimore will have an opportunity to capitalize on a weak defense in Jacksonville. They currently rank 30th in the NFL in points allowed/game at 29.4. Baltimore is a much stronger team at home than away (8-3 since beginning of 2014), and coming off a bye they should be well rested for a manageable Jacksonville squad. Take Baltimore here.

Final Stat: Joe Flacco has played his best football in his career in November. He is 23-9 (71.8% wins) since 2008.

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