Pick 4: Buffalo vs. New England and Miami vs. Dallas

Pick 4: Buffalo vs. New England and Miami vs. Dallas

The Teaser: Pair Buffalo and Miami

Game 1: Buffalo vs. New England

The Initial Line:

Buffalo +7.5 away vs. New England

The Take:

Add 7.5 points to Buffalo’s line

The Final Line:

Buffalo +15

The Breakdown:

Buffalo went on the road to upset division rival New York 22-17 on TNF. New England had their first true test against their arch nemesis in New York, but came away with the victory 27-26. Now on paper this looks like another easy victory for New England. They’re undefeated, have the best QB (and possibly league MVP) in Tom Brady, the best coach in Bill Belichick, and they rarely lose at home. However the injuries are really starting to stack up for them, as key go-to man Julian Edelman broke his foot last week after they lost Dion Lewis the week before. New England is known to be great at making adjustments, but they may see a slight decline in offensive production without those 2 in the lineup. Buffalo currently sits at 5-4 and would have the 6th playoff seed in the AFC if the season ended today. They have momentum after winning 2 straight games, both against divisional opponents. They also want to knock off the champs almost more than any other team, as they were the last team to beat New England at home. I still think New England will find a way to a late victory somehow, but this will be a tight game so feel confident with the 2 TD cushion here.

Final Stat: Tyrod Taylor quietly has the 3rd best passer rating in the NFL (106.2).

Game 2: Miami vs. Dallas

The Initial Line:

Miami even home vs. Dallas

The Take:

Add 7.5 points to Miami’s line

The Final Line:

Miami +7.5

The Breakdown:

Miami was able to get a big road win in Philly 20-19 to keep them in the AFC playoff picture. Dallas’ offense sputtered once again and fell on the road to TB 10-6. It looks like Dallas will finally have Tony Romo back in the lineup, after they lost 7 straight without him. However it’s yet to be seen how effective he will be in his first game back from injury. Miami now sits at 4-5 and is playing a must win game for them. After a rough stretch of road games (at NE, Buffalo, Philly), they will be excited to get back to Miami. Jay Ajayi has emerged as a nice compliment to Lamar Miller at RB, as he gained 89 yds on 11 carries last week. After a rocky start under Joe Philbin, Ryan Tannehill has found a bit of rhythm as he sits 8th in the NFL in passing yards. Expect Miami to come out strong in this do-or-die game for them, even against an opponent like Tony Romo. This should be a close game, but taking Miami with an extra TD should be enough to cover.

Final Stat: Dallas is 2nd worst in the NFL at forcing turnovers (6 on the season).

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