Pick 3: New England vs. Miami and Carolina vs. Tampa Bay

Pick 3: New England vs. Miami and Carolina vs. Tampa Bay

The Teaser: Pair New England and Carolina

Game 1: New England vs. Miami

The Initial Line:

New England -11 away vs. Miami

The Take:

Add 8.5 points to New England’s line

The Final Line:

New England -2.5

The Breakdown:

New England lost the battle to their divisional rival, as they fell on the road to New York 26-20 in OT. Miami continues to struggle, as they lost at home to Indianapolis 18-12. In the past this was always a tough matchup for NE, but I don’t see that being the case this weekend. Earlier in the season NE went off at home vs Miami, taking them down by a final of 36-7. NE is dealing with some injuries at both the WR, RB, and OL positions, but that hasn’t seemed to slow Tom Brady down as he still leads the NFL in passing yards and TD passes. The defense has also gone under the radar this season, but they currently rank 7th in total yards allowed. Miami has had struggles on both sides of the ball reflected in their 5-10 record. A key injury to Cameron Wake makes their D-line less threatening, and Ryan Tannehill continues to make mistakes at QB. If NE wins this game they will clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and their increased productivity at Gillette Stadium is well documented. Take them to win by at least a FG against a weak opponent.

Final Stat: New England is 6th in the NFL in turnover differential at +7. Miami however ranks 20th with a -3 differential.

Game 2: Carolina vs. Tampa Bay

The Initial Line:

Carolina -11.5 home vs. Tampa Bay

The Take:

Add 8.5 points to Carolina’s line

The Final Line:

Carolina -3

The Breakdown:

Carolina’s undefeated season finally came to an end last week, as they fell on the road to divisional opponent Atlanta 20-13. Tampa Bay couldn’t come back at home, as they lost to Chicago 26-21. Even though Carolina lost their first game and is primed for a playoff run, this game still has meaning as they have yet to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Tampa Bay showed some promise this year behind rookie QB Jameis Winston, but fell short of a playoff spot. Carolina has been strong on both offense and defense this season. They rank 2nd in points scored and 10th in points allowed this season, which shows their overall production and has translated into a 14-1 record thus far. Tampa Bay has now lost 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, as their strong start to the year has been overshadowed by their subpar performance in the 2nd half. Carolina needs to continue to play for the #1 seed while Tampa Bay is just trying to make it to the offseason. Take Carolina to bounce back at home here.

Final Stat: Carolina leads the NFL with a +19 turnover differential. Tampa Bay is tied for 21st with a -3 differential.

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