Pick 4: Jacksonville vs. Tampa Bay and Kansas City vs. Chicago

Pick 4: Jacksonville vs. Tampa Bay and Kansas City vs. Chicago

The Teaser: Pair Jacksonville and Kansas City

Game 1: Jacksonville vs. Tampa Bay

The Initial Line:

Jacksonville +2.5 away vs. Tampa Bay

The Take:

Add 8 points to Jacksonville’ line

The Final Line:

Jacksonville +10.5

The Breakdown:

Jacksonville suffered a tough OT defeat in week 4 on the road to divisional foe Indy 16-13. Tampa Bay also was beaten by a divisional foe at home, losing to Carolina 37-23. Both of these teams currently sit at 1-3, and there isn’t much excitement behind either one. It should be a well fought battle for Florida bragging rights though. Blake Bortles and Jameis Winston both rank near the bottom of the league in QB rating, at 78.9 and 71.2 respectively. Bortles has thrown 3 INTs thus far, but Winston had thrown a staggering 7 thru 4 games (tied for league high). This game might be decided by who makes the most mistakes, and so far TB has made more mistakes (10 turnovers) than Jax (4 turnovers). I see this game as more of a pick’em, but TB is favored by -2.5 due to home field advantage (although this does not gives them an advantage). Jacksonville also has more to play for, as they are only 1 game back in a weak AFC South division. Tampa Bay meanwhile already sits 3 games back of Atlanta and Carolina. Take Jacksonville with +10.5, as neither of these teams will be putting up high points totals and it will most likely stay within a TD score.

Final Stat: Tampa Bay hasn’t won a home game since December of 2013 (11 straight losses).

Game 2: Kansas City vs. Chicago

The Initial Line:

Kansas City -10.5 home vs. Chicago

The Take:

Add 8 points to Kansas City’s line

The Final Line:

Kansas City -2.5

The Breakdown:

Kansas City once again lost on the road to Cincinnati, leaving them with a 1-3 record on the season. Chicago was able to pull out their first victory of the season at home vs Oakland in week 4. Kansas City has underperformed some of their expectations this year, but they have faced some tough competition as 3 of their 4 opponents are currently undefeated (Den, Cin, GB). Chicago is a team barely holding on for life, as they needed all Jay Cutler could give them to win by 2 pts to a mediocre Oakland team. This is a game that Kansas City must win to stay in the hunt for a playoff berth, and they should have some support behind the home crowd. Surprisingly Alex Smith has thrown for the 6th most yds in the league, with 1,110 total. Jamall Charles also has the 4th most rushing yds in the league with 306. KC has the playmakers on offense to score some points, and I have a hard time believing Chicago can match the output. Grab KC to win by a FG at home, as Arrowhead Stadium should be rocking Sunday.

Final Stat: Chicago and KC are tied for last in most points allowed on defense (31.3 PPG), however KC has the 9th most points scored on offense (100) while Chicago sits at 28th (68).

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