Pick 4: New Orleans vs. New York (NFC) and Green Bay vs. Denver

Pick 4: New Orleans vs. New York (NFC) and Green Bay vs. Denver

The Teaser: Pair New Orleans and Green Bay

Game 1: New Orleans vs. New York (NFC)

The Initial Line:

New Orleans -3 home vs. New York (NFC)

The Take:

Add 7.5 points to New Orleans’s line

The Final Line:

New Orleans +4.5

The Breakdown:

New Orleans has looked like a different team these last few games, as they were able to beat Indianapolis on the road 27-21. New York was able to get the home win against division rival Dallas 27-20 to remain in 1st place atop the NFC East. Just 2 weeks ago NO was sitting at 1-4 and everyone was already looking towards next season. Now with 2 wins in a row and an opportunity to pull to .500 people are thinking otherwise. Drew Brees is a big part of that, as he led his team to victory over undefeated Atlanta in week 6 with a 76.9 comp % and 312 yds passing. The young defense is also starting to come together behind the play of Breaux, Kikaha, and Anthony. Both of these teams give up a lot of yards on defense (ranked 29th and 30th), so it’ll rest on the shoulders of Brees and Manning to control the game. Manning’s QBR hasn’t been strong lately (23.0 and 40.5 last 2 games), so hopefully New Orleans will take advantage at home.

Final Stat: Drew Brees plays much better at home. His comp % is 73.7 compared to 62.2, and his QB rating is 104.0 compared to 83.7.

Game 2: Green Bay vs. Denver

The Initial Line:

Green Bay -3 away vs. Denver

The Take:

Add 7.5 points to Green Bay’s line

The Final Line:

Green Bay +4.5

The Breakdown:

Green Bay and Denver both got to enjoy bye weeks in Week 7, and both have undefeated records coming into this game. In the past this would be showcased as a matchup of arguably the best 2 QBs in the game, but Manning doesn’t quite have that clout anymore. His arm strength is visibly declining, and their #1 defense is the only reason they’re still undefeated. Aaron Rodgers however is still arguably the best QB in football not named Tom Brady. His QB rating of 115.9 ranks 2nd in the NFL, and their overall offense ranks 5th in PPG. Maybe most surprising is that Green Bay’s defense leads the league over Denver in points allowed/game (16.8). This will still be a great showdown no matter what in Denver on SNF, but Green Bay still has the overall edge and should win this game. Worst case take then +4.5 in case a late FG sinks them.

Final Stat: Green Bay has the 2nd least turnovers in the league, while Denver ranks 18th.

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