Take Minnesota +3.5 home vs. Dallas
Minnesota lost a tough one on the road on Thanksgiving, as they were taken down by division rival Detroit 16-13. Dallas was able to hold on against Washington, as they secured the home victory 31-26. Dallas now has a 10 game win streak, and will carry momentum on the road this week. However, Minnesota is a tough team to beat at home as they sit at 4-1 on the year with the only loss coming in OT to Detroit. Minnesota ranks 2nd in the NFL with 17.0 PPG allowed, and that number drops to 16.6 PPG at home. Dallas ranks 3rd in the NFL in points scored, so this should be an interesting matchup. Both teams do fairly well at protecting the football as well, although Minnesota carries an edge in that category with a +12 (2nd in NFL) vs Dallas with a +3 (tied for 9th). The difference may come in Minnesota’s ability to stop Ezekiel Elliott, as this game will pin the NFL’s best rush defense (71.1 yards/game) against the best RB (1199 yards this season. This game should stay close and has the writings of an upset with the home underdog. Dallas may win at the end with a FG but we would still cover at +3.5.