Teaser Pick 1: New England vs. Cincinnati and Seattle vs. Atlanta

Teaser Pick 1: New England vs. Cincinnati and Seattle vs. Atlanta

The Teaser: Pair New England and Seattle

Game 1: New England vs. Cincinnati

The Initial Line:

New England -9 home vs. Cincinnati

The Take:

Add 8.5 points to New England’s line

The Final Line:

New England -0.5

The Breakdown:

New England survived for the first 4 weeks waiting for Brady’s arrival, and they were disappointed winning on the road vs Cleveland 33-13. Cincinnati was lit up in what was predicted to be a tight game on the road, as they fell to Dallas 28-14. New England was able to show that they have much more talent in positions other than QB the first 4 weeks, as their 3-1 record indicates. However, Brady just brings their play to a whole new level as he showed no signs of rust throwing for 406 yds and 3 TDs. Cincinnati now sits at 2-3 after their defeat, as they could not stop Ezekiel Elliot on the ground with his 134 yd and 2 TD attack. Before Brady was available, Blount was dominating in the running game as he still sits 7th in rushing yds. Combine him with the return of Brady and that equals a well balanced offense which will be hard to predict. There’s also the matter of home-field advantage where Brady just doesn’t lose. Against AFC opponents at home since 2006, Brady is a staggering 48-1! Cincinnati may make this a game so just take the extra points, but if that last statistic tells us anything it’s that New England with Brady at home is a lock to win the game.

Game 2: Seattle vs. Atlanta

The Initial Line:

Seattle -5 home vs. Atlanta

The Take:

Add 8.5 points to Seattle’s line

The Final Line:

Seattle +3.5

The Breakdown:

Seattle got a bye week after starting the season 3-1. Atlanta has been rolling so far this season, as they were able to go on the road to beat Denver 23-16 with backup QB Paxton Lynch at the helm. Seattle had struggled to get their offense going the first 2 weeks scoring 7.5 PPG, but went into the bye on a strong note averaging 32 PPG. This should be a good test of 2 of the elite teams in the NFL, with Atlanta’s offense averaging the most yards/game (457) while Seattle’s defense has allowed the least yards/game (264). Atlanta has gotten off to a hot start, but their first 3 opponents had some of the worst defenses in the league (Tampa Bay, Oakland, and New Orleans). Let’s also not overlook that this game is being played in Seattle, where the home-field advantage plays a big role in the outcome of games. Russell Wilson is 29-5 in his career at home, with a QB rating of 103.3. Matt Ryan is a much more modest 34-33 in his career on the road with a 87.4 passer rating. This should be a good game, but I expect Seattle will get the home victory after getting some needed rest on the bye week. Worst case grab them at +3.5 in case Atlanta pulls out the late FG upset.

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