Take New York Giants +3.5 away vs. Dallas
Both New York and Dallas had a strong year last season, with Dallas clinching the NFC East crown while New York got a wild card berth. Although Dallas ended the season with the 2nd best record in the NFL, New York seemed to be their kryptonite as they lost both games in the season series. Dallas got a pleasant surprise in 2016 with the emergence of rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot, with both in the running for MVP behind a stellar offensive line. New York mainly built off of the play of their defensive squad, who gave up the 2nd least points per game (17.8) in the NFL.
Dallas found most of its offensive success in 2016 because their offensive line was so dominant. Now they’ll have to deal with the losses of two of its key members, Doug Free and Ronald Leary, which will surely have an effect on their continuity. This will also likely affect the performance of their 2nd year stars, who will need to carry more of the load. They also lost a few of their big name defensive stars on an already questionable defense, and this will put a lot more pressure on some of their young talent. New York meanwhile was able to snag WR Brandon Marshall from their AFL New York counterpart, and kept most of their defensive unit intact. This should be a good battle on Sunday Night Football, but expect it to stay close just like last season (both games decided by 3 pts or less). I think New York has the clear edge on defense and can hang with Dallas’ offense, so don’t be surprised if they pull the upset once again. However, either way they should be able to hang within a FG, so +3.5 is a perfect line to take here.