Take Minnesota -5.5 home vs. Baltimore
Minnesota was able to beat their division rivals easily (although Rodgers was out most of the game), winning 23-10 at home. Minnesota’s run game is still working well despite the loss of Dalvin Cook, gaining 112 team yds on the ground with McKinnon leading the way with 69 yds and a TD. Baltimore suffered a large upset loss at home as 6.5 pt favorites, falling to Chicago in OT 27-24. Joe Flacco has continued to struggle this season, throwing for only 180 yards while coughing up 2 interceptions.
Despite not having Sam Bradford the past couple of weeks, the Minnesota offense has performed well behind Case Keenum. He currently sits 7th in the NFL in total QBR at 64.6, while Joe Flacco ranks 28th at 30.1. Baltimore’s defense has also fallen off a bit since their hot start, as they only rank 16th in yards allowed/game while Minnesota ranks 5th in the NFL at under 295.5 yards/game. The turnovers have been a big issue for Baltimore this year, who ranks 30th with 12 total through 6 games. Minnesota should be able to capitalize on Baltimore’s mistakes, particularly at home – Minnesota is now 8-4 at US Bank Stadium (2 losses to their division rivals Detroit) since the beginning of 2016. This doesn’t bode well for a struggling Flacco, whose career difficulties on the road are well-documented (32-40 road record vs 54-18 at home). October is also the worst month of his career with a 15-21 career record vs 71-37 record all other months. Take the home team here as Baltimore’s struggling offense (15.3 PPG, 3rd lowest in NFL) will struggle to fix their issues on the road against an elite Minnesota D.