The Teaser: Pair Oakland and San Francisco
Game 1: Oakland vs. Kansas City
The Initial Line:
Oakland +3 home vs. Kansas City
Add 8.5 points to Oakland’s line
The Final Line:
Oakland suffered a heartbreaking loss on Sunday, allowing their division rivals a game-winning field goal as time expired, losing 17-16 at home. A key missed extra point late in the game led to Oakland’s ultimate demise, along with Carr’s 2 interceptions. Kansas City took their first loss of the season after the offense failed to produce much of anything, falling at home to Pittsburgh 19-13. Kansas City ended up with 251 total yards on offense, but only had 25 yards at one point in the 3rd quarter in a usually comfortable Arrowhead Stadium environment.
Oakland has now lost 4 straight, but at least they got their starting QB back in Derek Carr. After high expectations to start the year, Oakland has been a major disappointment to this point and especially after all these consecutive losses. However, they’re catching Kansas City at the right time after their first loss and on a short week. They will be without some of their key linemen, including Mitch Morse and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, which is an issue for a team already giving up the 5th most sacks in the NFL. Despite their hot start to the year, Kansas City also has given up the 3rd most yards on defense, including 130.7 yards/game rushing which should open the door for big opportunities for Marshawn Lynch. Oakland has already lost 2 divisional games against Denver and Los Angeles and will do everything in their power to prevent a 3rd loss. They may not eventually win the game, but taking them as an underdog at +11.5 at home in a teaser seems like a safe play.
Game 2: San Francisco vs. Dallas
The Initial Line:
San Francisco +6 home vs. Dallas
Add 8.5 points to San Francisco’s line
The Final Line:
San Francisco +14.5
San Francisco lost yet another heartbreaker on Sunday, falling on the road to Washington 26-24. SF decided they saw enough of Brian Hoyer on Sunday and swapped in 3rd round pick C.J Beathard, who provided an immediate spark to the offense, throwing for 245 yds, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Dallas got to enjoy a bye week after a disappointing 2-3 start to the season. Dallas is searching for answers as many are questioning whether they were a one-hit wonder, and Ezekiel Elliott has come back down to Earth, only averaging 3.7 yards/carry.
San Francisco set the record on Sunday with 5 consecutive losses by 3 or less points, which seems hard to do. 4 of those 5 games were on the road too which shows they have the capability to hang around in games, and are surprisingly 4-2 ATS this season. They have a positive turnover differential at +1, while Dallas is on the opposite side with a -3 differential. Dak Prescott also hasn’t particularly blown people away through the air, as he only ranks 17rd in the NFL in pass yards/game (238). San Francisco is still winless and will be seeking a home victory again listed as an underdog. This could be a game where a surprise upset could occur, but Dallas’ offense should not be discredited either. Based on the last 5 games, San Francisco should be able to keep this one close at home. Take them in a teaser at +14.5 so even if they gave up a 2 TD lead they’d still be able to cover.