Pick 1: Cleveland vs. Cincinnati and Miami vs. Detroit

Pick 1: Cleveland vs. Cincinnati and Miami vs. Detroit

The Teaser: Pair Cleveland and Miami

Game 1: Cleveland vs. Cincinnati

The Initial Line:

Cleveland +6 away vs. Cincinnati

The Take:

Add 8.5 points to Cleveland’s line

The Final Line:

Cleveland +14.5

The Breakdown:

Cleveland was able to get a home win on Sunday, defeating Tampa Bay 22-17. Brian Hoyer was effective, throwing for 300 yds and 2 TDs. The defense was also able to force 2 INTs against Mike Glennon, helping move Cleveland to 4-1 at home and 5-3 on the season. This is the best start for Cleveland since the 2007 season. Cincinnati was able to defeat Jacksonville on Sunday, with a 33-23 victory at home. Andy Dalton threw for 233 yds with 2 TDs and 2 INTs, and Jeremy Hill filled in nicely for Giovani Bernard with 154 rush yds and 2 TDs. The defense also forced another INT against Blake Bortles, who has had his struggles turning the ball over as of late.

This is a big divisional game between Cleveland and Cincinnati. Cincinnati is leading the division at 5-2-1, but Cleveland is right on their heels at 5-3. Expect a highly competitive game on Thursday Night Football, as this could be a playoff deciding loss for Cleveland if they can’t step it up in this classic battle for Ohio bragging rights. Cleveland has either won or lost by 3 or less points in every contest of 2014 except 1 this season (Jacksonville). Expect this trend to continue, as they will either pull the upset this week in Cincinnati or will keep it a close game it what could be a do or die point in their magical season.

Game 2: Miami vs. Detroit

The Initial Line:

Miami +3 away vs. Detroit

The Take:

Add 8.5 points to Miami’s line

The Final Line:

Miami +11.5

The Breakdown:

Miami has now won its 3rd straight game, thanks to a convincing home win 37-0 over a typically high-powered San Diego offense. The defense had an incredible game, holding San Diego to 178 total yards and forcing 4 turnovers against Philip Rivers and Co. Miami’s offense was equally as good, as Ryan Tannehill had 288 yards and 3 TDs in the air. Lamar Miller also added 49 yards on the ground with a TD. Detroit had a bye week in week 9, after winning 3 straight games of their own. The defense continues to play strong for them, as they rank 5th in opp. pass yards and 2nd in opp. rush yards in the league. They were able to pull off a last second FG against Atlanta in week 8 at Wembley Stadium in London.

This will be a matchup of 2 great defenses on Sunday. Detroit is in the top 5, but Miami is also ranking 2nd in opp pass yards and 12th in opp rush yards. Miami also ranks 3rd in turnover differential, which bodes well against a Detroit team that has 10 giveaways on the season. Expect a tight battle between 2 teams riding winning streaks, but I give the edge to Miami as they have a ton of confidence after taking down SD while Detroit had a week to break up their rhythm. I see this game coming down to a last-minute FG, so either way we should be covered by taking Miami at +11.5.

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