Pick 1: Detroit vs. Chicago and Seattle vs. San Francisco

Pick 1: Detroit vs. Chicago and Seattle vs. San Francisco

The Teaser: Pair Detroit and Seattle

Game 1: Detroit vs. Chicago

The Initial Line:

Detroit -7 home vs. Chicago

The Take:

Add 6.5 points to Detroit’s line

The Final Line:

Detroit -0.5

The Breakdown:

Detroit suffered a road loss to red-hot New England on Sunday, falling 34-9. Matthew Stafford was only 18-46 (39.1%) for 264 yds and 1 INT, his lowest completion percentage of his career. The #1 ranked defense was also not able to stop Tom Brady and Co., as they gave up 439 yds and 6.0 yds/play. Chicago was able to get its second straight win at home, defeating Tampa Bay 21-13. They trailed 10-0 at the half, but were able to score 21 pts in the 3rd quarter to swing the momentum. Matt Forte had a strong game, rushing for 89 yds and 2 TDs. The struggling defense also stepped up to force 4 total turnovers, helping them secure the win.

This should be a good divisional battle on Thanksgiving. Detroit has lost 2 games in a row while Chicago has won 2 in a row. However, let’s look at those games more closely. Chicago won 2 straight with home-field advantage and against teams with a combined 6 wins through week 12. Detroit lost 2 straight on the road against teams with a combined 18 wins through week 12. Detroit still has the best defense in the league and will turn it around against Chicago. Also Detroit’s offense has failed to score a TD in the last 2, but this can’t continue with the combination of Stafford, Johnson, and Tate. Expect a big turnaround against a weak D on turkey day for the home team.

Game 2: Seattle vs. San Francisco

The Initial Line:

Seattle +1 away vs. San Francisco

The Take:

Add 6.5 points to Seattle’s line

The Final Line:

Seattle +7.5

The Breakdown:

Seattle came out strong against the best team (record-wise) in week 12, defeating Arizona at home 19-3. Russell Wilson managed the game well, going 17-22 with 211 pass yds, 73 rush yds, and a TD. The defense also stepped up big, holding Arizona to only 204 total yds and 3 pts. San Francisco pulled out another nail-biter on Sunday, defeating Washington at home 17-13. They were able to churn out a 75 yd drive and score a TD with under 3 minutes left to hold onto the win. Kaepernick had a decent game, going 20-29 for 256 yds, 1 TD and 1 INT. Anquan Boldin was the real star for the offense, catching 9 passes for 137 yds and a TD.

This is arguably one of the best rivalries in football, and will be showcased Thursday night once everyone’s eaten their fill of turkey. The both succeed at forcing turnovers. (SF has a +8 differential, Sea has a +6). Seattle gives up the least total yds in the league, and SF ranks 2nd. Both teams are 7-4 heading into week 13. This should be a very tight game to the end, however the slight edge goes to Seattle. San Francisco has had a few last minute wins, but I expect Seattle to go in and get the W here. But taking them at +7.5 as insurance should be comforting, as they’ve only lost 1 game by more than 7 all season (Week 2 at San Diego).

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