Pick 4: Arizona vs. Atlanta and Oakland vs. St. Louis

Pick 4: Arizona vs. Atlanta and Oakland vs. St. Louis

The Teaser: Pair Arizona and Oakland

Game 1: Arizona vs. Atlanta

The Initial Line:

Arizona -3.5 away vs. Atlanta

The Take:

Add 8 points to Arizona’s line

The Final Line:

Arizona +4.5

The Breakdown:

Arizona had its worst game of the season on Sunday, losing on the road to Seattle 19-3. Drew Stanton threw for 149 yds and an INT as the offense only mustered 204 yds of total offense. The defense kept them in the game by forcing Seattle into 4 FG attempts for most of the game, but a late TD by Seattle clinched it. Atlanta found themselves losing another close game, as they fell at home 26-24. Atlanta took the lead on a 53 yd FG with 0:44 seconds left, but failed to shut Cleveland down and gave up the game-winning FG. The defense was able to force Brian Hoyer into 3 INTs early, but couldn’t finish them off. Matt Ryan had a quality game, throwing for 273 yds, 2 TDs and an INT.

Somehow Atlanta still finds themselves atop the NFC South division despite a 4-7 record. Arizona is on top of the NFC West division, but they are tied for the best record in football at 9-2. They had a tough game in week 12, but should rebound as they know Seattle or SF will have an 8th win after Thursday. They still have the 3rd best turnover differential in the league at +10, which should help them against an Atlanta team that’s turned the ball over 17 times on the year. This one should stay close, but Arizona is the better team and should be able to pull out the victory. Worst case they lose by a FG (if ATL can manage the clock at the end of a game) and we still cover.

Game 2: Oakland vs. St. Louis

The Initial Line:

Oakland +7 away vs. St. Louis

The Take:

Add 8 points to Oakland’s line

The Final Line:

Oakland +15

The Breakdown:

Oakland finally got its first victory of the season on Thursday Night Football, defeating Kansas City 24-20 for a home win. That ended a 16 game losing streak dating back to last season for Oakland. Derek Carr passed for 174 yds and a TD, but was crucial on a late 7 minute, 80 yd TD drive with less than 2 minutes left. Latavius Murray was also having his first breakout game in the NFL before going down with a concussion, as he had 4 carries for 112 yds and 2 TDs. St. Louis lost a tight one in San Diego, falling 27-24. Shaun Hill threw for 198 yds, a TD and 2 INTs as STL managed to turn the ball over 3 times total.

The first win of the season is always the toughest, and Oakland must be relieved to have that under their belt. They also did it against a 7-3 Kansas City squad (record before the game). Oakland’s record doesn’t do them a justice, as they lost their 5 road games by an average of 7 pts (4 of which were 1 possession games). Both of these teams tend to turn the ball over often, as St. Louis has the slight edge (19 vs 21). Oakland now feels that they can beat the best and will keep this one close. St. Louis may win at home, but they only average 19 PPG vs Oakland’s 16 so don’t expect their offense to put up huge numbers with Shaun Hill. Take Oakland with the points here.

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