Pick 5: Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay and New England vs. New York (AFC)

Pick 5: Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay and New England vs. New York (AFC)

The Teaser: Pair Tampa Bay and New England

Game 1: Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay

The Initial Line:

Tampa Bay +13 home vs. Green Bay

The Take:

Add 8.5 points to Arizona’s line

The Final Line:

Tampa Bay +21.5

The Breakdown:

Tampa Bay lost a close road game to division rival Carolina, falling 19-17. The defense was able to force 1 turnover in the game, but they gave up 3 turnovers of their own. Josh McCown was shaky in this one, going 13-28 for 154 yds with a TD and an INT. Doug Martin had a solid game, with 96 yds on 14 carries. Green Bay was upset on the road, as Buffalo got the best of them 21-13 at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Aaron Rodgers had the worst game of his career, going 17-42 for 185 yds and 2 INTs. Eddie Lacy still held up his part of the offense, gaining 97 yds on 15 carries with a TD. The defense was actually pretty efficient, holding the Buffalo offense to 253 total yds.

We have seen that Green Bay is a much better home team than on the road, as they are 7-0 at home while only 3-4 on the road. Tampa Bay hasn’t been much to write home about this year with a 2-12 record, but they have been in most of their games. Of the 12 losses, they have only lost 4 by more than 8 pts which shows us that they are a resilient team. Aaron Rodgers is coming off his worst performance, and has to stay on the road once again. I do believe Green Bay will bounce back this week, as they still hold the best turnover differential in the league at +15. Look for Tampa Bay to stay in this home contest though, so taking them with a 3 TD cushion should be a no-brainer.

Game 2: New England vs. New York (AFC)

The Initial Line:

New England -11.5 away vs. New York (AFC)

The Take:

Add 8.5 points to New England’s line

The Final Line:

New England -3

The Breakdown:

New England had a huge 2nd half to embarrass Miami, as they ended up winning 41-13 at home. At halftime the game was 14-13 after a Mike Wallace TD as time expired, but New England ended that momentum with 24 3rd quarter points. Tom Brady managed the game well, with 287 yds, 2 TDs and an INT. Rob Gronkowski had another huge game, as he had 96 receiving yds and a TD. New York was able to hold on against a hopeless Tennessee team, winning 16-11 on the road. The star on offense was Eric Decker, who caught 7 passes for 100 yds. The defense was able to force the only turnover in the game, which ended up making the difference.

This matchup seems very lopsided, as New England currently has 8 more wins than New York. However these matchups usually stay close no matter what the records say. We can’t overlook the efficiency of the New England offense lately though, as they have averaged 31.6 PPG compared to New York’s 16.4 PPG. New England’s turnover differential is also 4th best in the league at +11, while New York is 2nd to last at -11. This was a close game on a week 7 Thursday Night matchup in Foxboro with New England winning by 2, but the teams have gone in opposite directions and NE is looking to lock down home-field advantage. Take New England here as they should win comfortably.

No Comments

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.