Pick 1: New England vs. Minnesota and Green Bay vs. New York (AFC)

Pick 1: New England vs. Minnesota and Green Bay vs. New York (AFC)

The Teaser: Pair New England and Green Bay

Game 1: New England vs. Minnesota

The Initial Line:

New England -3.5 away vs. Minnesota

The Take:

Add 8 points to New England’s line

The Final Line:

New England +4.5

The Breakdown:

New England suffered a tough loss in Miami in week 1, losing 33-20 with Miami outscoring them 23-0 in the 2nd half. Historically Miami has been a difficult matchup for Tom Brady, who is now 5-7 all-time vs the fish in Miami. Minnesota was able to pull out an impressive season-opening road win, beating St. Louis 34-6. I’m not sure how much of it was attributed to Minnesota dominance or failures by St. Louis to execute well, maybe a little of both, but either way it’s always good to start the season with a W.

New England has high expectations this year, and rightfully so. After an AFC Championship loss to Denver last year with an injury-plagued defense and Gronk-less offense, Brady has his star TE back along with a new addition of Darrell Revis at CB. Minnesota overachieved in week 1 with Matt Cassel and New England underachieved, plain and simple. Expect a big bounce-back week from Brady and Co. as they look for their first win of the season. Also New England hasn’t lost back-to-back games since September of 2012, as Bill Belichick is one of the best at making adjustments to his gameplan. There’s a reason that Minnesota is an underdog at home, and taking New England at +4.5 should make you feel very comfortable in this one.

Game 2: Green Bay vs. New York (AFC)

The Initial Line:

Green Bay -8.5 home vs. New York (AFC)

The Take:

Add 8 points to Seattle’s line

The Final Line:

Green Bay -0.5

The Breakdown:

Green Bay was handed a tough loss in week 1, as the reigning Super Bowl champions showed the league that they are ready for another title run with a 36-16 win in Seattle on opening night. A couple key penalties and unlucky turnovers kept Green Bay from any thoughts of a comeback in the 2nd half. New York got a satisfying season opening win at home against Oakland, holding off a late comeback with a 19-14 victory. However there’s not much to celebrate yet, as Oakland was ranked dead last in the preseason Power Rankings.

Last season Green Bay managed to sneak their way into the playoffs with a 8-7-1 record, despite the absence of Aaron Rodgers for most of the season. After a tough week 1 loss on the road, look for Green Bay to embrace the atmosphere of Lambeau Field and come out firing against a mediocre New York team. For reference, Aaron Rodgers has a career QBR of 104.7 (Best of any QB ever!) and Geno Smith has a career QBR of 35.7. Also Aaron Rodgers is 34-9 (.791 Win %) in his career at home, and 24-3 since 2010. Taking Green Bay at -0.5 (they just need to win the game) gives you great odds for a victory based on those statistics!

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