Pick 4: Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh and Indianapolis vs. Philadelphia

Pick 4: Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh and Indianapolis vs. Philadelphia

The Teaser: Pair Baltimore and Indianapolis

Game 1: Baltimore vs. Indianapolis

The Initial Line:

Baltimore -3 home vs. Pittsburgh

The Take:

Add 7.5 points to Baltimore’s line

The Final Line:

Baltimore +4.5

The Breakdown:

Baltimore suffered a brutal week 1 defeat at home 23-16 to their division rivals Cincinnati. It was a shoot-out until the end, but Andy Dalton buried them with a stunning 77 yd pass to AJ Green with under 5 minutes to play. Pittsburgh looked to be cruising to a lopsided victory at home in week 1 until Cleveland stormed back from a 24 pt defecit to tie it up at 27-27. Pittsburgh needed a late FG as time expired to save themselves an embarrassing defeat on opening day.

This Thursday night showcase is another division rivalry game for Baltimore. These games have been very tight the last couple years, as the last 5 matchups since 2011 have ended with one team winning by 3 pts or less (Baltimore won 3 out of the 5). Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger had very similar lines in week 1, throwing for over 300 yards and each having 1 TD and 1 INT. Look for another classic battle this week. However Baltimore hasn’t lost back-to-back home games since 2007, so feel comfortable taking them at +4.5 in M&T Bank Stadium.

Game 2: Indianapolis vs. Philadelphia

The Initial Line:

Indianapolis -3 home vs. Philadelphia

The Take:

Add 7.5 points to Indianapolis’ line

The Final Line:

Indianapolis +4.5

The Breakdown:

Indianapolis lost to 2013 AFC Champions in Denver 31-24, but fought to the end as a late rally by Andrew Luck was halted with an incompletion on 4th down with under 2 minutes remaining. It’s a tough task to open up the season at Denver, who sported a record-breaking offense in 2013 and made some key offseason additions on defense to round our their squad. Philadelphia looked like they were going to fold against a weak Jacksonville team, but they rallied from a 17-0 deficit to win 34-17 at home.

Both of these teams have the type of talent that can make a deep run in the playoffs. Andrew Luck has quickly established himself an one of the elite QBs in the game, and Nick Foles had a magical season last year that gave Philly fans hope for the future. This should be a battle by both teams on Monday Night Football, but expect Indianapolis to come out hungry in this one. They haven’t lost consecutive games since Andrew Luck has been a starting QB in the NFL. Also Luck is 13-3 at home in his career. Even if Indianapolis somehow lost a tight one at home, taking them at +4.5 would still ensure a victorious pick.

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