Pick 1: San Diego vs. Buffalo and Cleveland vs. Baltimore

Pick 1: San Diego vs. Buffalo and Cleveland vs. Baltimore

The Teaser: Pair San Diego and Cleveland

Game 1: San Diego vs. Buffalo

The Initial Line:

San Diego +2.5 away vs. Buffalo

The Take:

Add 8.5 points to San Diego’s line

The Final Line:

San Diego +11

The Breakdown:

San Diego pulled off a huge upset last week, beating the defending Super Bowl champs 30-21 at home. Antonio Gates and Philip Rivers guided the offense, connecting for 3 TDs. Seattle’s offense was also held to under 300 yards, as San Diego was the first team to make Seattle seem like an “average” opponent. Buffalo also had a nice divisional win at home against Miami, winning 29-10. They took advantage of 2 Miami turnovers and Sammy Watkins had the first breakout game of his NFL career, catching 8 passes for 117 yds and a TD. Buffalo is now alone atop the AFC East at 2-0 hoping to keep that trend going as they haven’t made the playoffs since 1999.

When comparing San Diego and Buffalo as far as talent, the edge goes to SD – Philip Rivers has proven he can be a legitimate QB in this league while EJ Manuel is still trying to adjust in his 2nd NFL season. However the public is favoring Buffalo by 2.5 pts based on their fast start. San Diego made the playoffs last year with a 9-7 record, while Buffalo once again saw themselves at the bottom of the AFC East only winning 6 of their games. Even with the likely absence of Ryan Matthews this week, expect a competitive game here from both teams. If San Diego has the ability to knock off Seattle, they should have the ability to beat Buffalo even if they’re at home. Taking San Diego at +11 should leave you feeling very optimistic.

Game 2: Cleveland vs. Baltimore

The Initial Line:

Cleveland +2 home vs. Baltimore

The Take:

Add 8.5 points to Cleveland’s line

The Final Line:

Cleveland +10.5

The Breakdown:

Cleveland has shown some great promise these last 2 weeks, as they pulled out a last minute victory 26-24 at home vs New Orleans. They also battled back in week 1 down 24 points to tie the game, only to see Pittsburgh hit a game-ending FG. A strong defense plus some decent play from Brian Hoyer has given Cleveland something to feel good about. Baltimore won in convincing fashion at home over their division rivals Pittsburgh 26-6 on Thursday Night Football. Pittsburgh turned the ball over 3 times and Joe Flacco passed for 2 TDs in the win. Both Cleveland and Baltimore are now 1-1 headed into week 3.

Even though Cleveland has struggled the past few years, they play much better at home vs on the road. They have only won 14 games since 2011, but of those 14 wins 11 came at home (78.6% Win %). Also Baltimore tends to struggle more on the road than at home. In that same stretch since 2011, Baltimore has won 31 games, but only 10 on the road (32.3% Win %). Expect the fans in Cleveland to be fired up for this one, and expect their defense to get after Joe Flacco. The will be a tight game to the finish, so taking Cleveland at +10.5 should be enough to cover even if Baltimore pulls it out at the end.

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