Pick 4: Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay and Cincinnati vs. Tennessee

Pick 4: Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay and Cincinnati vs. Tennessee

The Teaser: Pair Atlanta and Cincinnati

Game 1: Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay

The Initial Line:

Atlanta -7 home vs. Tampa Bay

The Take:

Add 6.5 points to Atlanta’s line

The Final Line:

Atlanta -0.5

The Breakdown:

After a record-setting week 1 with 448 yds and 3 TDs, Matt Ryan had a horrible week 2 throwing 3 INTs in a 24-10 loss away to Cincinnati. Atlanta gave up a total of 472 yds in the loss, but to their credit Cincinnati is a strong overall team and doesn’t seem to lose at home these days. Tampa Bay has struggled out of the gate, losing 19-17 to St. Louis to drop to 0-2 (both losses at home). However they have battled in both games, keeping both scores within a TDs reach. Josh McCown had a remarkable few games last year for Chicago (8 games, 1,829 yds, 13TD, 1 INT, 85.1 QBR), but Lovie Smith may have put too much faith in him as a starting QB as he already has 3 INT in the first 2 games.

Tampa Bay will now have to go on the road to the Georgia Dome, where Atlanta has been very good in recent memory. Since 2011, Atlanta is 18-7 when playing in the Georgia Dome (and 5 of those losses came last year alone). Expect a bounce-back week from Atlanta, as we saw from week 1 that this offense is capable of putting up big numbers. One thing to keep an eye on this week is Roddy White, who has sat out at practice Monday and Tuesday with a nagging hamstring injury. In any case, I still like Matt Ryan and Co. at home against Josh McCown and a struggling Tampa Bay team. Take Atlanta at –0.5 to ensure a victory at home takes the cake.

Game 2: Cincinnati vs. Tennessee

The Initial Line:

Cincinnati -6.5 home vs. Tennessee

The Take:

Add 6.5 points to Cincinnati’s line

The Final Line:

Cincinnati even

The Breakdown:

Cincinnati had another decisive victory at home this week, beating Atlanta 24-10 even though AJ Green went down. Miohamed Sanu filled in nicely with 3 catches for 84 yds and had a 50 yd pass. Cincinnati also had 3 INTs in the game, as their defense continues to play well. Tennessee suffered a home defeat to Dallas 26-10 after they upset Kansas City the week before. Their run defense did not perform well, as they gave up 167 yds to DeMarco Murray on the ground. They also had 2 turnovers in the game.

Tennessee will have their hands full as they try to go into Cincinnati for a victory. Cincinnati has won its last 10 games at home dating back to 2012, with an average of 32.2 points for and 16.1 points against. Even if AJ Green can’t play with a toe injury, Giovani Bernard should be able to take advantage of Tennessee’s poor run defense this week and take the pressure off Andy Dalton. Take Cincinnati at 0 as they will go on to win their 11 straight game at home.

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