Pick 3: Indianapolis vs. Tennessee and Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay

Pick 3: Indianapolis vs. Tennessee and Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay

The Teaser: Pair Indianapolis and Pittsburgh

Game 1: Indianapolis vs. Tennessee

The Initial Line:

Indianapolis -8 home vs. Tennessee

The Take:

Add 7.5 points to Indianapolis’ line

The Final Line:

Indianapolis -0.5

The Breakdown:

Indianapolis came up with a big win in week 3, beating Jacksonville 44-17 on the road for their first victory of the season. Andrew Luck torched Jacksonville’s defense, going 31/39 for 370 yds and 4 TDs. The defense stepped up as well with 3 turnovers. Indianapolis suffered tough losses in the first 2 weeks to powerhouses Denver and Philadelphia, so they seem poised to come on strong the next few weeks. Tennessee was hammered in Cincinnati 33-7 to move them to 1-2. Jake Locker only completed 50% of his passes and threw 2 INTs in the loss. They just can’t seem to get a consistent stretch going after their week 1 victory in Kansas City.

Indianapolis is one of those teams hungry for a playoff run again this year, despite their 1-2 start. Andrew Luck has stood out so far this year, with 9 TD passes and a QB rating of 103.0. Expect that trend to continue, especially in Indianapolis. He has a career record of 13-4 at home (76.5% win %), and has only lost 1 game in his 3 year career after a road win. Tennessee’s offense is currently 2nd worst in the NFL, scoring only 14.3 ppg compared to 31.7 by Indy. Indy is the better team in this matchup, and they will win at home in week 4. Take them at -0.5 to ensure a victory clinches it.

Game 2: Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay

The Initial Line:

Pittsburgh -8 home vs. Tampa Bay

The Take:

Add 7.5 points to Pittsburgh’s line

The Final Line:

Pittsburgh -0.5

The Breakdown:

Pittsburgh went into Carolina on Sunday Night Football and showed that they can be an elite team, with a huge 37-19 win in Carolina. Le’veon Bell and LaGarrette Blount each rushed for over 100 yds, which was the first time the Steelers accomplished that feat since 1986. Their defense also forced 2 turnovers against a potent Carolina offense. Tampa Bay got embarrassed on Thursday Night Football, losing in Atlanta 56-14 to move them to 0-3 on the season. They managed 5 turnovers in the game, 4 coming on lost fumbles. Also their starter Josh McCown went down with a thumb injury, forcing Mike Glennon to play the rest of the way.

After a confidence-building victory, Pittsburgh heads back to Heinz Field looking for back-to-back wins. Tampa Bay is looking for any sign of progress at this point. In Heinz Field since 2011, Pittsburgh has a 18-7 record (72% win %). In a tough AFC North division, they know that they need to beat teams like Tampa Bay to have a chance at making the playoffs. Tampa Bay has given up the 5th most yards of offense this year, so expect Pittsburgh’s offense to continue to roll. The defense should also fair well against either QB that ends up playing on Sunday. Pittsburgh will win at home against Tampa Bay, bottom line. Grab them at -0.5 to ensure that.

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