Pick 2: New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay and Arizona vs. Denver

Pick 2: New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay and Arizona vs. Denver

The Teaser: Pair New Orleans and Arizona

Game 1: New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay

The Initial Line:

New Orleans -10 home vs. Tampa Bay

The Take:

Add 7.5 points to New Orleans’ line

The Final Line:

New Orleans -2.5

The Breakdown:

New Orleans once again showed their road struggles in Dallas, losing 38-17 and moving to 0-3 this season on the road. Both teams put up over 400 yds of offense, but it was the 3 turnovers that killed New Orleans. Dallas set the tone early, leading 24-0 at the half and never looked back. Tampa Bay pulled off a miraculous victory in Pittsburgh, winning 27-24 for their first victory of the year. Pittsburgh had many chances to put this one away, but instead the Bucs moved the ball 46 yds in 33 seconds to score a TD with 7 seconds left on the clock (and managed to make us lose our pick of Pit -0.5). This was a much-needed victory for a Tampa Bay team riding its backup QB Mike Glennon.

New Orleans knows that at 1-3 they are underperforming, but as history shows they will play a lot better at home and will remind us why they should still be considered Super Bowl contenders. Over their last 9 regular season games at home, New Orleans is 9-0 with an average of 32.4 points scored and 14.9 points against. Those stats should tell it all. New Orleans is a great team despite their record, and Tampa Bay is just mediocre overall. Take New Orleans at -2.5, as they will win this weekend and most likely in dominating fashion.

Game 2: Arizona vs. Denver

The Initial Line:

Arizona +7 away vs. Denver

The Take:

Add 7.5 points to Dallas’ line

The Final Line:

Arizona +14.5

The Breakdown:

Arizona and Denver both had a bye week in week 4. Arizona beat division rival San Francisco at home in week 3 23-14 to move to 3-0 on the season. Even with the absence of Carson Palmer, Arizona hasn’t missed a beat with Drew Stanton. Also the defense can’t be ignored, as they are 5th in the league in total yards allowed per game at 316. Denver had a tough overtime loss in Seattle in week 3, losing 26-20. They were down 17-3 in the 4th quarter, but no lead is ever safe when you have Peyton Manning as he marched his team 80 yds in the last minute to force OT. Denver now sits at 2-1 on the season.

Now its hard to dispute that Denver is unbeatable at home, as they have on of the best offenses in the league and are 16-2 at home since 2012. However Arizona is known to upset powerhouses at home. Seattle is 17-1 since 2012 at home, but the one loss is to Arizona last season. Arizona is a team that is still undervalued, and being an underdog by 7 pts to any team is just amazing for teaser bettors. Good defenses can beat good offenses, just look at last year’s Super Bowl (Seattle beats Denver 43-8, original line has Seattle +3). I like Arizona challenging Denver for their first home loss this year, but even if they can’t defeat the great Peyton you gotta like them with a 2 TD cushion at +14.5.

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