Pick 4: Indianapolis vs. Cincinnati and Chicago vs. Miami

Pick 4: Indianapolis vs. Cincinnati and Chicago vs. Miami

The Teaser: Pair Indianapolis and Chicago

Game 1: Indianapolis vs. Cincinnati

The Initial Line:

Indianapolis -3.5 home vs. Cincinnati

The Take:

Add 7 points to Indianapolis’ line

The Final Line:

Indianapolis +4.5

The Breakdown:

Indianapolis got a road win in Houston on Thursday Night Football, sealing a 33-28 victory. They did almost give up a large lead, but some strong defensive play late helped secure the win. Andrew Luck once again showed why he’s the best QB in the league this year, throwing for 370 yds and 3 TDs. The defense stepped up when it counted, recovering 2 fumbles within the last 5 minutes. Cincinnati lost it’s 11-game win streak at home, but not with a loss. They ended up tying Carolina, after Mike Nugent missed a chip-shot 36 yd FG as overtime expired. Andy Dalton threw for 323 yds and 2 TDs, but he also threw 2 INTs to keep Carolina in the game.

After losing their first 2 games, Indy has been rolling as of late. They’ve won their last 4 games, averaging 34.5 PPG during the streak. Andrew Luck now leads all QBs in yards (1,987) and TDs (17). This matchup should work in his favor, as Cincinnati ranks 22nd in opp. pass yds allowed. Also Indy has a huge home field advantage with Andrew Luck leading the charge. During his career, Indy is 15-4 at home and Luck has a 86.7 QBR. Cincinnati had won in its previous 2 games after starting 3-0, and seems to be shaken a bit after losing big in New England. Expect Indy to keep their momentum going this weekend a pull out a victory. It might be a close game, but Indy should be able to close it out if they execute. Take the insurance by getting them at +4.5.

Game 2: Chicago vs. Miami

The Initial Line:

Chicago -3.5 home vs. Miami

The Take:

Add 7 points to Chicago’s line

The Final Line:

Chicago +4.5

The Breakdown:

Chicago got a rare road win in the Georgia Dome, defeating Atlanta 27-13. Jay Cutler threw for 381 yds and a TD, and Matt Forte had 80 yds with 2 TDs in the win. The defense was also able to force an INT in the victory. Miami couldn’t hold off Green Bay, as they suffered a heartbreaking home loss 27-24. They held the lead 24-20 with 4 minutes left, but a late march by Aaron Rodgers led to a TD pass with 3 seconds left. They also managed to turn the ball over 3 times, as Ryan Tannehill threw 2 INTs in the loss. Miami now moves to 1-2 at home and 2-3 overall on the season.

Chicago now sits at 3-3 for the season, but all of their wins have come on the road – which is rare. They have averaged at least 5 home wins over the last 6 seasons, which means they’re likely due for a home win. There is a likely chance that Chicago could force turnovers against Tannehill and the Miami offense, as they rank 4th in the league with 12 takeaways. Jay Cutler has also been consistent for the Chicago offense, averaging over 275 yds and 2 TDs a game. They will be hungry for a home win this weekend. Combine that with a hostile Soldier Field crowd and a colder environment that Miami is used to, and you’ve got yourself a formula for a win. This should be a tight game however, so grab the +4.5 line in case a late FG sinks them.

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