Pick 5: Denver vs. San Francisco and Baltimore vs. Atlanta

Pick 5: Denver vs. San Francisco and Baltimore vs. Atlanta

The Teaser: Pair Denver and Baltimore

Game 1: Denver vs. San Francisco

The Initial Line:

Denver -6.5 home vs. San Francisco

The Take:

Add 6.5 points to Denver’s line

The Final Line:

Denver even

The Breakdown:

Denver hasn’t been the headlining powerhouse this year with so many other breakout teams, but they are “quietly” having another stellar season. They defeated New York (AFC) on the road this week, winning 31-17 and moving to 4-1 on the season. Peyton Manning had another solid performance, throwing for 237 yds and 3 TDs. The defense was also able to force 2 turnovers against Geno Smith and the struggling New York offense. San Francisco was able to pull off a Monday Night Football road victory against St. Louis 34-17. Down 14-0 early, the rallied back behind the excellent play of Colin Kaepernick (346 yds, 3 TDs). St. Louis had a shot at the end to tie, but instead threw a pick 6 in the arms of Dontae Johnson to seal the win.

San Francisco has won 3 straight games, while Denver has won 2 straight. The only loss Denver suffered this year was in OT in Seattle, which is arguably the toughest stadium in the league to play in. However Peyton has his own accolades since calling Denver his home. Since his first start in a Denver uniform in 2012, he is 17-2 at home with an average of 35.4 PPG! He’s only failed to let the team score under 30 pts at home 4 times in that span. For reference, San Francisco only scored 30 pts once this year in 6 games (31 pts last week). Denver has too potent an offense and a home-field advantage that is tough to match. Take Denver to win this one.

Game 2: Baltimore vs. Atlanta

The Initial Line:

Baltimore -7 home vs. Atlanta

The Take:

Add 6.5 points to Baltimore’s line

The Final Line:

Baltimore -0.5

The Breakdown:

Baltimore went into Tampa Bay and exploded, winning by a margin of 48-17. Joe Flacco threw for 306 yds and 5 TDs, all coming within the first 17 minutes of the game. Justin Forsett was also effective on the ground, rushing for 111 yds on 14 carries. Atlanta suffered its first home loss of the season, losing 27-13 to Chicago. They couldn’t seem to get their usually potent offense going, as they mustered under 300 total yards for the game. The receivers dropped a total of 7 passes, and a late INT ensured the Chicago victory.

Baltimore heads home to take on Atlanta in week 7. Atlanta and Matt Ryan have had their struggles on the road. In Matt Ryan’s career, which started in 2008, he is 24-27 on the road (47.1 win %) compared to 38-11 at home (77.6 win %). Baltimore is also a team who in recent history tends to do much better at home than on the road. In that same span of time since 2008, Baltimore has a 41-10 home record (80.4 win %). That’s an average of 6.4 wins/8 home games a season! Expect this trend to continue, as Atlanta has lost 3 in a row and looks like a team searching for answers. Baltimore will win big at home this weekend, so take the -0.5 line with the home favorite.

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