22 Oct Pick 5: Philadelphia vs. Arizona and Green Bay vs. New Orleans
The Teaser: Pair Philadelphia and Green Bay
Game 1: Philadelphia vs. Arizona
The Initial Line:
Philadelphia +3 away vs. Arizona
Add 7.5 points to Philadelphia’s line
The Final Line:
Philadelphia had a bye in week 7, but sits at 5-1 behind Dallas’ 6-1 record in the NFC East. They had a 27-0 convincing win against New York before their bye week. They rank 8th in the NFL in total points scored despite the bye week, and have not scored less than 21 pts in a game this season. Arizona got a road win against Oakland this weekend, winning 24-13 on the road. Carson Palmer played a solid game, throwing for 253 yds, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Andre Ellington was the workhorse for them, earning 88 yds on the ground and 72 yds in the air (160 total yards). Their 5-1 record is Arizona’s best start since 1976.
Philadelphia will be well rested off the bye for this matchup of 5-1 teams. Both have shown to be among the best in the NFC and poised for playoff runs. Philly has scored at least 27 points in 5 of their 6 games, while Arizona has only reached that total once. They will have to find a way to stop Nick Foles, as they rank 31st in pass yds allowed. Philly was able to defeat Arizona last season 24-21 at home after a bye, and this one should also be a tight game. Really I think either team could be capable of winning this game as they both are very talented, but seeing Philly as a 3 pt underdog is a mistake as the line should probably be even. Add points to Philly to get a final line of +10.5 and an almost certain winning pick.
Game 2: Green Bay vs. New Orleans
The Initial Line:
Green Bay even away vs. New Orleans
Add 7.5 points to Green Bay’s line
The Final Line:
Green Bay +7.5
Green Bay has been on a great run the last few weeks, once again winning at home 38-17 vs Carolina. Aaron Rodgers had another great performance, throwing for 255 yds and 3 TDs. The rushing game also added over 100 yds and 2 TDs behind Lacy and Starks. They took an early 21-0 lead after the 1st quarter and never looked back, as they earned their 4th straight victory and moved to 5-2 on the season. New Orleans suffered a late defeat on Sunday, losing on the road to Detroit 24-23. They held a 23-10 lead with 5:24 left in the game, but a late INT by Drew Brees helped give Detroit the momentum they needed to pull out the win. Colston and Stills each had over 100 receiving yards, as Brees threw for 342 in total.
This week 8 matchup is shaping up to be a great matchup. Green Bay has all the momentum, but New Orleans is a tough team to defeat at home no matter what their record is (2-4 at the moment). Green Bay should be able to take advantage of New Orleans, as they rank 28th in pass yards against. On the other side New Orleans has the 2nd best passing attack, but Green Bay ranks 6th in pass yds allowed so that may be a good battle to watch. We will also have to monitor the health of Jimmy Graham, as he played last week but did not catch a pass with a lingering shoulder injury. I think in the end either team could win this one (hence the even line), but Green Bay is playing as well as any team in the NFL and even if they lose the will keep it within one possession. Take them at +7.5 so they could still lose by a TD and we’d still cover the line.